由于中國巨大氧化鋁產(chǎn)能不斷投產(chǎn)，6月份國際氧化鋁價格開始下跌，使得電解鋁生產(chǎn)企業(yè)成本下降。同時，國際電解鋁需求依然保持強勁，預(yù)計未來電解鋁價格將持續(xù)在高位振蕩，電解鋁行業(yè)復(fù)蘇已經(jīng)進入第二階段。
氧化鋁價格如期下跌
6月份國際氧化鋁價格開始下跌，從歷史最高點650美元/噸下降到540美元/噸，主要原因是中國在建的巨大氧化鋁產(chǎn)能開始投產(chǎn)，導(dǎo)致進口量下降，使得國際氧化鋁市場從供不應(yīng)求轉(zhuǎn)為供應(yīng)過剩。
我們維持對電解鋁行業(yè)繼續(xù)處于復(fù)蘇并主要分為兩個階段的看法：
1、自2005年四季度開始，由于電解鋁價格上漲的幅度開始大于現(xiàn)貨氧化鋁價格上漲的幅度，電解鋁-現(xiàn)貨氧化鋁價差開始顯著擴大。其主要原因是因為電解鋁需求強勁，電解鋁生產(chǎn)企業(yè)的減產(chǎn)，使得電解鋁市場供求關(guān)系進一步改善，在此背景下，國際投資基金大量入市，倫敦金屬交易所鋁期貨價格升幅巨大。
2、第二階段將表現(xiàn)為現(xiàn)貨氧化鋁價格下跌幅度大于或等于電解鋁價格跌幅，電解鋁-現(xiàn)貨氧化鋁價差將繼續(xù)處于歷史高位。隨著大量國內(nèi)氧化鋁新建產(chǎn)能的逐漸投產(chǎn)，現(xiàn)貨氧化鋁供應(yīng)大幅增長，價格將開始不斷下跌，而同期電解鋁行業(yè)在宏觀調(diào)控下，其產(chǎn)量增長將下降至10%以下，使得電解鋁供過于求的狀況遠(yuǎn)小于氧化鋁市場，使得現(xiàn)貨氧化鋁面臨更大壓力。
我們上調(diào)對電解鋁價格2006年的預(yù)測從19500元/噸至20000元/噸，并維持2007年17500元/噸的預(yù)測。同時維持對2006年現(xiàn)貨氧化鋁價格5300元/噸的預(yù)測和下調(diào)2007年現(xiàn)貨氧化鋁價格4500元/噸低至3500元/噸。
06年電解鋁價格將高位震蕩
在電解鋁需求依然強勁的情況下，我們認(rèn)為電解鋁價格2006年將繼續(xù)保持高位震蕩的局面。目前，我們認(rèn)為電解鋁價格正在接近短期底部：
1、全球來看，2005年四季度，在電解鋁價格處于2000美元/噸的情況下，高企的能源價格使得歐洲和北美的電解鋁廠加大了關(guān)閉的可能性。目前，能源價格比當(dāng)時還要高，因而當(dāng)電解鋁價格接近2000-2200美元/噸的時候，歐洲電解鋁廠關(guān)閉的可能性將再次加大，而可能的產(chǎn)量減少將對電解鋁價格提供較強支持。
2、國內(nèi)電解鋁價格的劇烈波動以及大幅下跌并接近生產(chǎn)成本將減少閑置電解鋁產(chǎn)能的啟動速度。由于目前國內(nèi)氧化鋁價格仍然維持在5650元/噸，國內(nèi)電解鋁生產(chǎn)成本已達(dá)到約20000元/噸，而電解鋁價格近期的大幅下跌至20000元附近，將開始閑置電解鋁產(chǎn)能的啟動速度。
行業(yè)集中度提高，討價還價能力加強
中國電解鋁企業(yè)總數(shù)進一步下降至110家。2005年在氧化鋁價格和電費高企的情況下，電解鋁企業(yè)虧損嚴(yán)重，尤其是5萬噸以下的小型電解鋁企業(yè)。2005年下半年，小型電解鋁企業(yè)開始逐漸減產(chǎn)和關(guān)閉，根據(jù)我們的統(tǒng)計共計近20家電解鋁廠已經(jīng)關(guān)閉，同時2005年10萬噸以上的電解鋁廠共計28家(約占總廠家數(shù)的28%)，共生產(chǎn)了512萬噸電解鋁，約占總產(chǎn)量的66%，行業(yè)集中度比2004年進一步提高。
電解鋁行業(yè)集中度的提高將有利于行業(yè)自律性的改善，包括未來在行業(yè)再次陷入虧損時，電解鋁企業(yè)聯(lián)合減產(chǎn)的可能性和執(zhí)行力。中國電解鋁行業(yè)再現(xiàn)2005年全行業(yè)虧損的可能性已經(jīng)很小，電解鋁行業(yè)已處于不斷復(fù)蘇之中。
電解鋁閑置產(chǎn)能不會集中釋放
我們認(rèn)為國內(nèi)目前電解鋁總產(chǎn)能約為1050萬噸左右，與2005年780萬噸產(chǎn)量相比差距約為270萬噸，這一數(shù)字是市場目前普遍預(yù)期的閑置產(chǎn)能。但是根據(jù)我們的計算，其實際構(gòu)成為，目前閑置產(chǎn)能約為100萬噸，在建產(chǎn)能為76萬噸，未達(dá)產(chǎn)約為74萬噸。閑置產(chǎn)能低于市場預(yù)期的結(jié)果將造成電解鋁產(chǎn)量增長速度低于20%，產(chǎn)能不會集中釋放。
我們認(rèn)為在電解鋁行業(yè)處于復(fù)蘇之中時，閑置產(chǎn)能的啟動不可避免，以及考慮到未達(dá)產(chǎn)產(chǎn)能的繼續(xù)達(dá)產(chǎn)，2006年的電解鋁產(chǎn)量增長速度將與2005年的產(chǎn)量增速18%基本持平，但超過20%的可能不大，即2006年中國電解鋁產(chǎn)量將低于940萬噸。
另一方面，由于國家對電解鋁行業(yè)的宏觀調(diào)控，特別是十一五規(guī)劃中指出單位GDP的能耗將下降20%，而電解鋁屬于高耗能行業(yè)，因而我們認(rèn)為中國電解鋁產(chǎn)能總量將不會大幅增長，目前主要是消化已有的較大的閑置產(chǎn)能。如果2006年電解鋁產(chǎn)量增長較快，2007年電解鋁產(chǎn)量增長速度將大幅下降至10%以下。
#p#分頁標(biāo)題#e#
全球來看，高企的能源價格使得歐洲和北美的電解鋁廠加大了關(guān)閉的可能性，即使中國電解鋁廠在行業(yè)復(fù)蘇后，產(chǎn)量增加，全球電解鋁產(chǎn)量將依然緩慢增長，全球電解鋁市場將處于基本平衡的狀態(tài)。
電解鋁需求依然強勁
全球經(jīng)濟，尤其是歐洲和日本經(jīng)濟繼續(xù)保持快速增長，工業(yè)生產(chǎn)依然處于擴張過程之中，因而電解鋁消費速度將繼續(xù)較強增長。2
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- SELECT `id` FROM `ht_arctype` WHERE `pid` = 35 [ RunTime:0.000233s ]
- SELECT `id` FROM `ht_arctype` WHERE `pid` = 34 [ RunTime:0.000229s ]
- SELECT `id` FROM `ht_arctype` WHERE `pid` = 14 [ RunTime:0.000225s ]
- SELECT `id` FROM `ht_arctype` WHERE `pid` = 12 [ RunTime:0.000239s ]
- SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `ht_article` [ RunTime:0.001081s ]
- SELECT * FROM `ht_article` WHERE `archives_id` = 4132 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.006839s ]
- SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `ht_links` [ RunTime:0.000974s ]
- SELECT * FROM `ht_links` WHERE `status` = 1 [ RunTime:0.000404s ]
0.309147s
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