期銅十年一夢牛去熊來
河南有色金屬網(wǎng)站 m.duogouba.com 時間：2005-01-01 20:52 來源：
近日有色金屬期貨價格在鋁的領跌下，銅、鋅、鎳等也出現(xiàn)重挫，當投資者還在猶豫是否應改變多頭思維時，國內(nèi)滬銅期價已暴跌2000多點。所謂戰(zhàn)略性拋空的投資者每次盼著“狼來了”，但每次都被無情的上漲所 傷。不過筆者認為，這次狼真的來了。
商品屬性 基本面實質(zhì)性改變
供給方面，近幾年銅價高企致使全球礦山產(chǎn)量大幅增長，2005年預計增幅達8.0%，銅精礦供應充足并已過剩，直接反映是TC/RC大幅上升，中國現(xiàn)已超過180美元/18分，冶煉商生產(chǎn)已跟不上銅精礦產(chǎn)量的增長。而精礦產(chǎn)量的大幅度上升，必導致精銅產(chǎn)量大幅提高。需求方面，ICSG報告稱，今年頭兩個月全球銅供應過剩2.4萬噸，而去年同期尚缺23.6萬噸。CRU更是預測05年全球過剩量將達5.2萬噸。表明體現(xiàn)商品屬性的供求關系正在實質(zhì)性改變，這是牛熊轉(zhuǎn)變的關鍵因素。
此外，從過去30多年來銅價與庫存關系上可以看出，二者基本上呈負相關性，但時間上并不完全同步，庫存低點并未對應銅價高點，在1989年的大牛市中，銅價從高點下跌時庫存還在持續(xù)下降，銅價于1989年1月達到高點而庫存在1990年7月才減少至最低。當前庫存仍處于較低水平，時間上也并不對應銅繼續(xù)高企，而供求關系的實質(zhì)性改變，必然促使銅完成牛熊轉(zhuǎn)換。
金融屬性 保值作用不再
與農(nóng)產(chǎn)品生產(chǎn)的季節(jié)性及儲藏時間的有限性相比，金屬通常作為投資組合的一部分，其保值作用比較明顯，特別是全球性的通貨膨脹及貨幣大幅貶值期間更加顯著。自2001年大宗商品價格總體轉(zhuǎn)為牛市及美元持續(xù)貶值以來，金屬，特別是銅作為銀行、基金等大機構(gòu)當作保值手段所囤積持有。本輪銅大牛市與以往不同之處在于，迄今并未發(fā)生全球性通貨膨脹，一直提供支持的美元走弱趨勢也告一段落。這使得銅的保值作用弱化，美元作為一種與商品進行對沖的交易機制，已不存在任何趨勢性理由，從而必然對銅價構(gòu)成實質(zhì)性壓力。
博弈性 基金高位撤離
作為重要投機力量的基金與套期保值力量的商業(yè)戶之間的博弈，經(jīng)常導致行情發(fā)生方向性運動。一般而言，基金主導價格的趨勢性運動，而通過對基金持倉分析可窺探到其操作手法，研究表明，基金在價格低位，多翻空時多采取猛烈方式，短時間就可完成，如2001年11月初，減產(chǎn)導致的銅價“V”型反轉(zhuǎn)，基金從凈空2.6萬手翻至凈多僅用兩周時間，2002年10月初也僅用不到兩周時間就完成了多空轉(zhuǎn)換；而在高位時，基金一般通過時間來完成多翻空，強行翻空只會導致價格暴跌而無法完成多空轉(zhuǎn)換，2004年CBOT大豆市場上，基金在1000點以上平多翻空，直到價格跌至600多才達到凈空狀態(tài)；銅市也如此，2004年10月中旬、12月初、2005年初基金在高位的每次倉位調(diào)整都導致價格暴跌。從博弈論角度解釋，在低位時，基金翻多對應的是賣出套期保值者，而賣出套保者在成本確定的情況下，通過賣出鎖定利潤以我為主，較少關注價格趨勢，一般只要達到目標位即進場與基金多頭形成對手；而價格在高位時，基金多翻空必須找到貿(mào)易商和消費商作為對手才能完成多空轉(zhuǎn)換，當價格處于高位時，消費商隨用隨買，買漲不買跌心理導致基金很難短期完成多翻空轉(zhuǎn)換，強行翻空只會導致價格暴跌，而基金用時間換空間的方式能很好完成多空轉(zhuǎn)換。
本輪銅牛市中，基金經(jīng)過幾次強行翻倉的失敗，逐步改變策略，利用時間換空間，不斷通過高位擠空來促使商業(yè)買盤進場接盤，在3月初基金凈多持倉達到3.6萬手以后，一直維持價格高位，不斷擠兌空頭，特別是中國大量買盤入市后，通過近兩個月的時間，順利完成倉位調(diào)整，截至上周僅剩1.6萬手，在多頭基本全線撤離后，宏觀基金、CTA基本翻空。而隨著與美元貶值形成的對沖功能的弱化，指數(shù)基金也必然撤離。而商業(yè)性持倉轉(zhuǎn)為凈多成為基金必然做空的基礎，也是牛熊轉(zhuǎn)換、頂部逐步形成的條件，基金與商業(yè)的博弈結(jié)果基金翻空后，推動行情轉(zhuǎn)入漫漫熊市。
中國因素逐漸弱化
本輪大牛市的一個特殊背景就是中國經(jīng)濟強勁增長，引發(fā)對銅的需求猛增，中國因素在銅價創(chuàng)出歷史最高水平的過程里起到關鍵作用。但自2004年上半年以來，中國政府采取多種措施進行宏觀調(diào)控，抑制經(jīng)濟的過熱勢頭。如果近期房地產(chǎn)等行業(yè)調(diào)控措施效果不明顯，接踵而來的必然是加息、升值等更為嚴厲的措施，不排除經(jīng)濟硬著陸的可能。中國經(jīng)濟增速的放緩，對銅需求必然下降，而作為全球銅消費增量最大貢獻國，一旦需求減少，必然進一步緩和銅的供應緊張局面，最終結(jié)束本輪牛市，完成牛熊轉(zhuǎn)換。#p#分頁標題#e#
(中證網(wǎng)/喻猛國)
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0.340721s
